usually by now the internet will be flooded by trump haters ridiculing trump of ignorance and stupidity regarding the huawei issue but i can't find a single article. looks like all the usual trump haters are supporting trump on this issue so maybe huawei really is a security threat. also note that the justice department and canada was quick to defy and denounce trump on his muslim ban but they cooperated fully on arresting the daughter of huawei's CEO which was a very big deal considering she is like the princess of china. also, china's constant cyber attacks on the US is something nobody can deny. i don't think china's leaders will be angry at trump's actions because they know they are guilty of espionage and cyber attacks. it's just part of the game. all countries do it.
but if huawei is really a security threat, why would trump consider lifting the ban if china gives him a good deal on trade? he basically just said he will compromise US security just for a trade deal. fortunately for trump, everyone is already used to his clownish behavior. it's just trump being trump.
i think the security threat is just a pretext. the real concern is china's burgeoning power and influence. i read that crippling huawei will deal a big blow to china's power and influence. note that trump's goal is not to take down china but just lessen the insanely huge trade deficit. it's not really a trade war, because US is already the big loser. the trade deficit with china is around $220 billion. you just need to google the pie chart of the US national budget to get an idea how big that is. the US is just asking for fairness. everyone wants free trade but also fair trade. you hardly read this point of view in the press but i'm sure china's leaders are aware of this that's why i don't think this will escalate to a lose-lose situation. the media's job is to do it's best in trying to scare people.
is it a good idea for the US to stop china from gaining more power? maybe. china doesn't even allow religious freedom to it's own citizens. they are persecuting the falon gong members and muslim uyghurs. i think favoring china over the US is duterte's biggest and most serious flaw. or maybe duterte just seems he is favoring china with his rhetoric but in reality the policies of the philippines still favor the US by a mile. i don't really have the facts and data about this. the US is no saint but it's clearly the lesser evil compared to china.
at first i felt the trade war could result in skirmishes and even a major military confrontation. but note that trump have said he likes the chinese and iranian people and wants them to prosper. he just doesn't want them to be a militarily force to recon with. it's not far fetched to imagine that countries like china and iran will throw in the towel and fall in line. minions like philippines, japan and even israel are doing well. what trump is doing feels dangerous but could possibly turn out to be a great thing. the US did take down the soviet union without a single missile fired so there is good hope the trade war could conclude without violence.
another interesting question is, if trump was not president, would huawei and china trade deficit be an issue? i don't think so. this could increase trump's chances of getting re-elected. i know it sounds stupid but it looks like he is the only one with the guts to try to save the world from china. if you think it's not a big deal for a country who bans facebook and google to gain power there is something wrong with your brain. socializing and sharing information with the rest of the world is one of the greatest gifts to humanity. no matter how flamboyant huawei's CEO tries to be, maybe he thinks people would side with him because many think trump is a maniacal psychopath, he can't hide the fact that he is just a puppet of a government that bans facebook and google.
i found a good video about the huawei 5G controversy - Huawei 5G LIES!. below is the comment i posted on the video:
china banned facebook, google, wikipedia, etc ... it had every right and good reasons to do so. they need to maintain their domestic stability and national security. america's pretext to ban ZTE and huawei are based on lies but the real reason is just as fair and valid. the ban will stem the tide of the growing power and influence of china. economic power usually leads to military power. morality is a stupid argument in the real world. if an invading army is raping my wife and daughter i'm not going to laugh at the rapists and say "haha joke is on you guys because we are the good guys and you are the bad guys". at first i thought i'm just giving an extreme example to prove my point. but then i realize china is detaining and torturing hundreds of thousands if not millions of falon gong members just for practicing meditation, energy exercises, and a moral philosophy drawing on Buddhist tradition. it may never be able to invade america but it can easily invade the philippines were most of my family is living. china is even already encroaching in philippine territory. if i were the chinese govt i would definitely ban facebook google wikipedia etc ... china is doing the right thing. but there is also nothing wrong with banning huawei to stem the tide of growing power and influence of china. it's a race. it's a dirty race. that's just the way it is. why in the world would americans side with a country that can't even give valuable freedom to it's own citiziens? US is not a saint but it's clearly the lesser evil. the US was a greater evil when it killed it's communist dissenters and committed horrible atrocities in vietnam, east timor, nicaragua and many other places. but nowadays it's clearly the lesser evil. but if you are a chinese citizen, you will benefit economically if china captures the global market on 5G so i will do exactly what you are doing if i'm in your place (i assume you are a chinese citizen). i'm an american citizen so i'm writing this comment hopefully to help my country in this never ending ugly but necessary human struggle for freedom and economic security. maybe the CFO of huawei would rather be under house arrest in vancouver where at least she can practice meditation, energy exercises, and a moral philosophy drawing on buddhist tradition
here are very good perspectives from jim cramer:
Cramer admitted that China's tariff retaliation had investors fleeing for the exits, but in reality, most companies won't see lower earnings as a result of these developments. Why? Because America doesn't sell a lot of goods into China -- because China won't let us. That's why our $200 billion in tariffs was met with only $60 billion on items like carrots, broccoli, almonds, pears and pasta. China also tried to go after liquefied natural gas, but Cramer noted that with so much demand, most of our gas supply is sold out for over 10 years.
In addition to tariffs, the Chinese could also sell nearly $1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. But Cramer said that scenario would actually be doing the U.S. a favor in the current economic climate.
Finally, China could retaliate against America's crown jewel, Apple (AAPL - Get Report) , but Cramer reminded viewers that iPhones are made in China, which makes a boycott or tariffs unlikely.
What the CEOs say About Tariffs:
In his "No Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer said one thing is striking when talking to CEOs about the trade war with China and that's the uniformity of their answers. He said that CEOs all tell him that it's impossible to deal with Chinese companies that steal U.S. intellectual property with impunity. They all agree that something needed to be done and they applaud even a flawed plan over no plan at all.
Cramer noted there's no way to have a coalition of countries go up against China, as other countries stand to gain if China slows trade with the U.S. That means the U.S. has to go it alone, even if it means less commerce and the possibility of a global slowdown.
Even if the trade war fails, President Trump can still declare victory with the extra $100 billion a year flowing into the Treasury. As for the Chinese, Cramer said they may be more vulnerable that many people believe.
Most of China's latest tariffs were on agricultural products, Cramer noted, but America has a long history of subsidizing farmers, so this time will likely be no different. Meanwhile, China's borrow-and-spend stimulus program can't go on forever, putting its economy in a precarious position.
(for more of my knowledge bombs, click the "ian's knowledge bombs" banner at the top of this article and choose any article in the table of contents that piques your interest)
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