pro-maga pundit tucker carlson recently criticized anti-maga jim cramer's BUY/SELL calls on stocks. tucker is like criticizing michael jordan for missing 50% of his shots. showing examples of cramer's bad calls is like showing clips of michael jordan missing shots. in this article, i will explain why tucker is wrong. this article highlights the tendency of magas to be illogical and misinformed. if you wish to be informed, read my other article: https://ian-crystal.blogspot.com/2023/10/you-are-maga.html. it will blow your mind.
cramer is actually the best teacher when it comes to investing. deciding when to buy and sell a stock is just a small part of the investment game. the difficult part in investing is finding a THESIS. cramer taught me how to find a good investment thesis and how to trade around it. investing is not really a stock picking game. it's more of a thesis hunting game. but the most important thing cramer taught me is how to know when a thesis is broken and get out of a stock entirely.
if you are a cramer disciple like me, you will actually be HAPPY if a stock you just bought immediately goes DOWN after you bought it. keep in mind everything you know about a stock is PUBLIC. that means after you confirm your thesis is good, that means the entire world also knows about it. that means the big money has already been made and the stock will most likely be stuck in a trading range for a while.
i did get in very early in the AI bull market but it was just dumb luck. i bought nvda at $19 (split adjusted) on april 21, 2022. i did not know anything about the AI revolution at that time. the market including cramer was recommending a sell on nvidia because the US government was banning sales of its high end chips to china. i went against the grain and considered it good news. i speculated that the ban means nvidia's TECHNOLOGY is SUPERIOR which means it will eventually dominate the US market and offset any loss from the china ban. luckily, i was correct.
but you don't need a stock to skyrocket to make lots of money. you can make lots of money even if a stock stays within a range by RANGE TRADING the ups and downs. that's why cramer always tells you to first buy 1/4 of your intended position and buy some more as it goes down. so if you buy only 1/4 of your intended position and the stock immediately DOUBLES and gets stuck there for a very long time, you really didn't make that much money. but if the stock keeps going down and up within a range, then you make lots of money. that's why you should be happy if the stock you just bought goes down immediately. tucker does not know what he is talking about when he says most of cramer's buy recommendations goes down.
i usually have around a dozen theses. a thesis is like a life of a person. there really is no such thing as a correct or wrong thesis. they differ in QUALITY of LIFE. it's very difficult to know if your thesis is broken. usually, the stocks are already down 50% before you realize your thesis is broken and need to get out entirely. remember everything you know is public. so by the time you are convinced your thesis is broken, the stocks have already been crushed. but i never have to worry because i'm still making lots of money from my other theses. in investing, you don't need to be correct all the time. you just have to be correct most of the time
even if a thesis is BROKEN, it's very possible that you already made enough money trading the ups and downs. i think there was just 1 thesis where i did not make money. that was the renewable energy thesis in early 2010's. but i did not lose that much because i already made enough money range trading the stocks for 2 years.
my most important advice is to NEVER range TRADE a SPECULATIVE stock. speculatives are usually small companies with no profit. a speculative can be part of a thesis but you should only buy ONCE. never buy again if it goes down. if it goes to zero, let it go to zero. i never care if my speculative stock goes to zero because it's just 1% of my portfolio. however, you should always sell half every time a speculative stock doubles (it's called playing with house money).
investing is actually easy. just read my blog article: https://ian-crystal.blogspot.com/2015/06/investing-for-dummies.html. i haven't updated my investing blog in quite a while but the following are my theses that are still alive:
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