3/26/19 fb post:
i rarely express my excitement in facebook about a rare market imbalance opportunity but every time i do so far my predictions came true. i have to warn you there is always a first time but i just noticed my favorite diabetes play ely lilly has a high short ratio of 7. i'm tempted to break my rule of not adding shares at the top because it looks like a slow moving short squeeze is going on.
last time i saw this rare phenomenon was in sep 5 2017 when i went berserk with multiple posts in facebook about xilinx. since then it has doubled, up 100% while the market is only up 14%. here are the screen shots of that historical moment of my pathetic life:
12/27/18 fb post:
last night after i bought and posted buy buy buy here in fb spy was up only .7% and when i woke up and checked to see if it did not reverse instead now it's up a whopping 5%. i stated in my post to sell if a range trade profits 5% then 2 hours later it jumps 5%. incredible timing !!! what gave me confidence was when i saw a video of trump on christmas eve all alone in the white house mumbling about how his friends are abandoning him. i can read his expression as if he was saying "fuck this country i will just try to win in 2020". trump has 2 choices that will greatly affect the lives of your children and grandchildren and their grandchildren (the border wall is just a side show) -1) hamper the growing power and influence of china around the world by cutting the trade deficit which will hurt china more than it hurts us but will surely cause a recession which means trump will surely lose in 2020. but in the long term this will be very good for america and the world in general especially the philippines where china is starting to encroach in the spratleys. 2) just continue to do what all the other presidents have done - keep the economy rolling to get re-elected at the expense of long term consequences, which will not really affect their family anyway because in a oppressive system the rich will always benefit but for regular folks like you, your children and grandchildren will be screwed. it's just simple logic, why the hell would trump risk a recession and losing his chance of winning in 2020? the recession caused by the trade war is his own doing and he can easily reverse it. also, every one in the washington swamp is against pulling out troops in syra. why would he do it? does he have a son stationed in syria? EGO ? if trump truly has an ego he will just continue to feed the defense oligarchs and the trade lobbyists who are allowing our country to be raped by china, etc ... just to have a better chance of winning in 2020. that's what obama, bush, and clinton did.
12/17/17 fb post
diamonds are not forever
one day i was blogging and roy mooring around the mall and just for fun tried to figure out which mall retailers will be immune to amazon's wrath in the US. one of the retailers that i think will be immune from being amazoned are the jewelry stores. i mean, who the hell buys an engagement ring online? right? i googled it to verify and test my judgement skills and i was humbled to find out i was wrong. turns out most people nowadays buy their engagement ring online. then i learned the market is being flooded with lab created diamonds. it's just a matter of time before lab diamonds will start dragging down the price of natural diamonds. couple that with the fact that the demand for diamonds or buying a diamond for an engagement ring is just a marketing invention done by De Beers 80 years ago. it's not an ancient tradition or part of any culture. diamonds are not even that rare. only by carefully restricting the supply has De Beers kept the price of a diamond artificially high. if you are not superflously wealthy and you own an engagement ring, better to be safe and replace that with gold jewelry. but don't blame me if bitcoin also brings down the price of gold in the future. hahahaha.
12/15/17 fb post
Skyworks Launches “5G in Five Minutes” Video
swks is getting more attractive. it's down 15% from it's highs. this is a good long term 5G play. but it's not done going down. don't catch a falling knife but keep it in your radar. if it starts beating the sp500, like 2-3 days, that's the time to get in. if you are worried it's hostage to apple, remember, no one owns yet an iphone that has a 5G modem. eventually all iphone users will want to buy a 5G iphone (i think that would be iphone 11). it's been a long time since an iphone has a new feature that is a real game changer and yet iphone sales continue to be very strong. can you imagine when 5G is available. 100X faster internet is a game changer.
12/2/17 fb post
hahahaha !!! on nov 21 i recommended to buy vz, which at that time was hated by wall street. the experts were recommending to buy the rock stars like nvda because this is suppose to be the time of the year when big fund managers do window dressing - they buy the winners like nvda so that their portfolio will look good to their clients when they send out the yearly report. instead i recommended vz which at that time won't stop going down. today, just 10 days later, if you look at the chart vz is up a whopping 11% while nvda is down a whopping 8%. you can't say i'm just a broken clock who of course is always correct twice a day because this is the only stock i've recommended in the past 2 years. note that both vz and nvda are my core holding. i never touch my cores i buy and hold very very long term unless my catalyst is broken. then on the side i range trade the ups and downs of my cores. so now i sell the vz shares i just bought 10 days ago and buy nvda. if vz continues to go up then i'm still happy because i still have my vz core
11/21/17 fb post
verizon (vz) looks good right here. it's down 20% from it's highs. vz has been one of my fave core forever. i never touch my cores (nor my scholars) but i do range trade the ups and downs around my cores while also enjoying the bountiful 5% dividend. of course there are lots of other sexy stocks right now that won't stop going up, and i believe they will continue to go up, i believe we are just in the middle innings, and i own some high growth but i don't like to tout them here in facebook because i want to teach my imaginary students the importance of discipline and patience. anyway you can always read about those anointed stocks in sun star and freeman. let me show you how i do my due diligence:
first i try to destroy my own thesis - vz is a high yielder and we are in a period of rising interest rates which means the big guys will rotate out of vz because they can get that yield somewhere else (bonds). that's why vz is down 20%. i love to buy a stock that is down on technicals, not fundamentals.
vz is in a very competitive industry. a price war with at&t and sprint can easily send investors running for the exit. vz has no upper hand or no proprietary technology that can give it the edge. unlike fb, goog, nvdia and amazon who are murdering anyone that stands in their way. but to me that's good because that means vz is cheap and stable. it means vz will not double in the next year but that also means vz will not get cut in half in the next year. and if it does get cut in half, i will be happy to buy some more. that's because vz is too big and too important too fail so eventually problems will get fixed and the stock will recover.
the wireless industry in the states as an oligopoly. there's only about 5 big providers. the barriers of entry is pretty difficult to penetrate. that is why i stay away from restaurants, fashion, apparel and retail where anyone can just come in and be the star of the show overnight.
the wireless industry is not a dying industry. people will need to use cell phones for decades to come. unlike oil which is facing stiff competition from alternative energy. that is why i don't have oil stocks anymore. i also stay away from brick and mortars retail, where amazon and ecommerce is orchestrating their slow and certain death. i also stay away from cigarette and junk food companies because the world is starting to be more health conscious. i stay away from utilities which could be in danger from roof top solar and new battery technology.
i also love companies where the customer will have to keep paying every month. just like the razor and blade business model where you give the razor for free but the customer will have to keep buying the blade. that is why i stay away from tools and hardware that doesn't easily wear off or break. example, once you buy a gun, you own it forever and can even pass it from generation to generation. that is why i stay also stay away from tools and heavy equipments.
vz also has a growth catalyst - 5G. vz is way ahead in installing the new 5G technology which means it will be the first to capture the market. vz also has the largest and clearest network. all this gives me confidence vz will never file for chapter 11 which means i can happily buy it everytime it goes down. even if vz never goes up, i can still make lots of money range trading and getting the 5% dividend.
why are big funds still buying the stocks of dying industries and businesses with not much barrier of entry? 3 reasons:
1) the amount of money they are managing is so gigantic there are not enough stocks of solid companies so they have no choice but to also buy restaurants, apparel, and retail. or else the stocks of boeing, verizon, google and nvidia will be insanely overvalued (law of supply and demand). unlike me, managers can't just park their client's money in the sidelines.
2) they know how to value stocks. example, even if macy's is dying, they know at what price where macy's will become a bargain. keep in mind macy's still owns the land and building of it's giant stores and nothing can stop them from transforming the stores into e-commerce distribution centers or entertainment complexees and make boatloads of money
3) they are smart enough to predict which fashion or restaurants will become winners.
i am not a professional so i don't have clients breathing down my neck demanding performance. i have time on my side. i can afford to wait as long as it takes for the high yielders like vz to be favorable once again. it's just a cycle. when that happens i'm already ahead of the herd so it's my turn to outperform. hedge fund managers are way more savvy investors and traders than me but they don't enjoy the luxury of time. they have to keep outperforming the market year in and year out. that's another reason why vz is down. even if vz is not a high yielder, it's not a growth stock and right now, high growth is fashionable in wall street. so even if the fundamentals of vz are still intact, the big guys will sell it to buy high growth. that's where parasites and scavengers like me step in to collect the spoils. one man's trash is another man's treasure.
why don't i just join the party? because i don't know when the party is going to end. the big guys control the market and they decide when the party ends. besides, i do own some nvdia, fb, goog, amzn, and nflx but only as part of my diversification strategy. why don't i just go overweight on these sexy stocks and get out when it starts to go down? the problem with that is it always goes down from time to time on it's way up. let's say my portfolio is 80% high growth and the bull market takes a breather - it goes down 10%. if i go out, it could snap back up and double in the next year and i will miss the gains. if i don't go out, or worst double down, it could easily go down 10% more. that would be a big haircut on my entire portfolio. OUCH !!! when the party ends in high growth stocks, it will go down a lot, easily 50%-80% down, and stay down forever. that's because they have very high valuations that expects the growth to keep coming and when the growth stops and eventually it will, the stock is severely punished. unlike vz who has a PE of only 11 while the PE of nvda is 61.
2 years ago i did commit 20% of my portfolio to high growth because it's much safer nowadays compared to the dotcom boom of the 1990s - where valuations were insanely high and everyone was buying using margins or borrowed money instead of their own money, so when the stock goes down they are forced to sell or else suffer the high interest rates. also the brokerage firms forces a stock bought using margins to sell if it goes down at a certain price - a perfect recipe for a market crash. most of the stocks didn't even have any earnings, while the anointed growth stocks nowadays are very profitable. the market has learned it's lessons.
9/6/17 fb post
it's unethical to profit from disaster but USG is a nice trade on hurricane harvey. they make home building materials (gypsum boards, etc ...). the fundamentals are ok, and it is heavily shorted - 11.7 short ratio, maybe because it has a history of filing for bankruptcy. buffet now buffet owns 19% of the company so hopefully it is under good management. so there could be a short squeeze looming on the horizon.
9/5/17 fb post
my gad why is xilinx heavily shorted? it's 11% of float. this has to be an error. i blindly rotated to xlnx when intel bought my company altera. it's been very solid so far with no major hiccups. THIS IS SO WEIRD !!! what the hell are these guys thinking? i know altera's products are SLIGHTLY better than brand x but IT'S A DUOPOLY YOU MORONS !!! customers like cisco will never want to be dependent on just 1 customer so they will always buy xlnx just to keep it alive or else if xlnx goes banktrup and altera (now intel) has monopoply cisco will be forced to suck altera's dick if altera is horny.
this is why i retired because it's too easy to take advantage of idiots in wall street (the movie "the big short" confirmed my belief that wall street is littered with spoiled rich kids who have no clue what they are doing). i googled why xilinx is heavily shorted and found this article. THIS WAS FROM WAY BACK IN 2011. xilinx have already more than doubled and THE SHORTS HAVE NOT YET EVEN COVERED. this means xlnx went up organically on it's own merits, not on a a short squeeze. i also read other articles where they mentioned other heavily shorted stocks. lvlt, fmc, and xlnx were the top shorted stocks that time. lvlt have tripled but the shorts have covered (down to 2% float). but notice how lvlt tripled in value. i checked the fundamentals of lvlt they are not good. that is a classic short squeeze. this means the short squeeze of xlnx has not happened yet. i was planning to sell xilinx to raise some cash but now i should just wait for the short squeeze. although i will not buy some more because i am not god. https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/07/22/can-this-stock-overcome-the-shorts.aspx
when i have a thesis i always try to bludgeon it to death. so what if xilinx is heavily shorted because the fpga business is dying? simple logic - folks in intel are not dumb - they would not have bought altera if they don't think the fpga market will continue to expand for many years to come. so in this battleground stock, which side should i choose? the smart guys at intel, or the spoiled rich kids in wall street? it's a no brainer.
what about the fundamentals? i admit the fundamentals are not good. xlnx is quite expensive. but that 11% short is a potential rocket fuel that could be ignited by the slightest buyout rumor and send this stock to the moon. remember it's a duopoly so even if intel (altera) has better fpga's customers will still buy xlnx just to keep the competition. when sellers compete, customers win.
i haven't made a contrarian call in a while. imax is left for dead but i think it deserves a second look.
first the negatives - to me it's scary that there hasn't been a good imax release for over a month after dunkirk. the movie theater industry is dying because of the stay at home economy and netflix.
but there is a new catalyst - imax virtual reality. all i see are highly positive reviews when i google it but i'm not totally sold yet. i want to see for myself. but i'm in the philippines. so for the meantime, can a dear facebook friend in los angeles, toronto or new york be my foot soldier? cost is only around $9. then post your experience in fb and tag me. https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2017/02/22/imax-opens-new-virtual-reality-site-that-will-change-entertainment-forever/#7fbe5ff4572f
i like stocks that have strong barriers of entry. imax technology is patented so it's hard for anyone to just come in and compete. that's why i'm staying away from the currently red hot data center stocks because it's easy for anyone to build data centers.
imax is only $1 billion market cap, very easy for google or apple to snap it up. to put it in perspective, there are new data center companies that are only 3 years old and already has $6 billion market cap. imax annual revenue is around $150 million - to put this in perspective it's almost 15% of it's market cap and considering a block buster movie can easily gross $150 million. so $1 billion market cap is very small. i hate speculating on buyouts alone but imax has the VR catalyst and a strong balance sheet - around $200 million in cash which is about 20% of it's market cap and very little debt. remember when i called the bottom on apple? my biggest justification was the $200 billion in cash in apple's balance sheet. imax is also profitable with a decent forward PE of 20 and a 5 year PEG of 1.7.
i'm more comfortable investing in something that don't have lots of analyst buy recommendations. that means there is no pump and dump going on where the big guys want you to buy only because they want to sell. remember at the bottom of housing crash there were no articles recommending to invest in real estate while i was screaming in facebook to get in - https://ian-crystal.blogspot.com/2011/09/once-in-a-milenia-opportunity.html
i also like to start buying when a stock is way off from it's highs. imax is down a whopping 50% but i think most of it is due to etf gravity. stocks nowadays trade in etf baskets so even if imax is oversold, it will continue to drop if the etfs containing regal and AMC continues to be sold.
i don't want to catch a falling knife so i will wait for it to trend upwards a bit before buying. the recent low was around $18 so $20 would be a good entry point.
but please you must treat imax as a speculative. my blog article gives you enough knowledge to invest safely - http://ian-crystal.blogspot.com/2015/06/investing-for-dummies.html
1/13/15 facebook post
I predicted this. I said all along the democrat vs republican competition is just a front to make it look like we have a democracy. i think it's a good thing. it's better for america. democracy is a great idea but in the world of imperfect human beings, it's better to have a benevolent oligarchy like we have now. it's also why i say people who buy into the democrat vs republican arguments are idiots.
http://news.yahoo.com/senate-democrats-look-tweak-bill-keystone-xl-pipeline-082450800--finance.html
1/12/15 facebook post
there's a quiet bull market i see in agricultural stocks (check out FMC). it is bucking the trend with no positive news. no one is writing or saying anything about it - of course why would they share the money with you bozos? actually all you read about is negatives about agriculture - that it's such a horrible industry to invest in right now. when the prices have gone high and smart money have made enough money - that's when they do a pump and dump to lure weak hands into buying and losing money.
stop fussing about oil. everything is a cycle, balancing, rebalancing. as oil goes down, low energy cost stimulates the world economy causing it to grow, causing it to use more oil, causing oil price to eventually go up. then the cycle eventually reverses. unless a "destructive" technology emerges like solar which won't be a factor at least in the next 5 years.
12/15/14 facebook post
amazing eog just keeps bouncing between 85 and 91 and i just keep buying and selling close to that range. same with boeing, etp, kmi, tan, gld, lng, and deo. when everyone is afraid, i become brave. when everyone is brave i become afraid. just look at deo (makers of johnny walker black), i posted here in facebook i sold at 122 now it's 112. so now i buy deo again.
11/21/14 facebook post
i have an idea. i like pgf - nice 7% yield bank preferred etf. it behaves like bonds, so when interest rates start going up, this would go down (most likely at most 10% down). not much, but the problem is other high yielders would also go down which is 20% of my net worth. but when rates go up, bank stocks also go up because that's how they make money. so what if instead of cash, i will buy a bond like high yielder, but then i hedge it or protect it by buying a good bank stock - spread it among bac, wfc, and jpm. this way, my cash gets inflation protection with the yield, but at the same time it is protected from rising interest rates. SOUNDS GOOD? what do you think? (this will blow the mind of wall street analysts if they see this facebook post)
10/22/14 facebook post
i knew it was a pump and dump. LMT stock today was down 9% at the open even if the market was up 2%. last week i saw many facebook friends posting that they are buying LMT stocks because of the breakthrough fusion reactor that would give the world unlimited clean energy. i posted in facebook warning it is a pump and dump. to me it sounded too good to be true besides if it really is true they won't announce publicly they would keep it to themselves. WHY THE FUCK WOULD THEY SHARE THE WEALTH TO YOU BONEHEADS? THAT'S NOT HOW THE WORLD WORKS. it says it's going public because "they need partners in industry and government" - hey morons they don't need to go public to get the support they can just meet with the right people and keep it confidential. defense industry stocks have doubled since obama was re-elected his stance against romney to cut back on the defense budget was totally fake no wonder why big republican oligarchs were happy obama was re-elected. now money has already been made, it's time to sell. BUT NO ONE IS BUYING. SO THEY MAKE UP A JUICY NEWS TO LURE SUCKERS IN SO THEY CAN SELL AND LOCK IN THE PROFITS. just kidding. none of the things i just said is true i'm just messing with you guys. hahahahahahaha. if you share this post you will only be embarassed so please don't share this post. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/lockheed-tumbles-as-sales-fall-short-of-analyst-estimates.html?cmpid=yhoo
this was the article - http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2014/10/15/lockheed-martin-claims-fusion-breakthrough-that-could-change-world-forever/
9/9/14 facebook post
the market was flat but OMG there was a HUGE sector rotation from the high yields and oil to growth names. isn't it weird that i own EOG but i got excited that it came down hard. am i a masochist? nope. but why? because kos kos balongos. i got excited because that means i can buy some more. i'm waiting for it to settle down before i buy. patience my friend. also i've been wanting to get into shell (rds-a). wall street is starting to give me a bargain. shell has great management they were my childhood friends the melieza famly and mantos family ( Marion Mantos )
when oil is going down, you buy the transports. fedex and ups is out of style in the wall street fashion show. airlines are favored right now and my favorite is DAL delta airlines. for the first time in history of the universe the airlines are investable because of consolidation. less competition it's now an oligopoly. they don't try to kill each other with price wars anymore.
and as usual, gold is down again. let's wait for it to settle down before we buy. just wait for my signal. range trading is my bread and butter. I LOVE THIS GAME !!!
when money flows from stable high yielders to growth like tech and industrials, that means smart money expects the economy to pick up. usually the price of oil also increases, but for the first time in the history of the universe, oil is going down. why? because kos kos balongos. USA is producing oil like crazy so there is oversupply. and here is the kicker, while oil and natural gas is going down, solar is going up. THAT IS VERY WEIRD. that only means one thing - this is rocket fuel for solar to skyrocket (pardon the opposite pun). i am already overweight on solar so i just sit and watch and enjoy the show.
8/3/14 facebook post
thank you fb friends !!! you are my best market guidance. you are my best indicator of the future. last week i predicted gopro earnings will dissapoint wall street because although i see so many of my fb friends posting gopro videos, only my brother actually bought one. as i predicted, gopro gets slaughtered 15% in 1 day. HOLY COW !!! it's amusing watching the pun headlines. financial journalists are having a field day with the puns and jokes. it's a cruel world indeed - "gopro's Q2 selfie earnings shows blemishes". hahahahaah!!! "gopro wipes out". hahahahaha !!! "not extreme enough. gopro fails to impress". hehehehe. gopro skids" (ok that was corny the writer obviously is not an x-games enthusiast). "is gopro still attractive? if you're short, that is". PILOSOPHO GYUD !!! "gopro's nimble. but can't dodge the wipeout". http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=GPRO+Headlines
my gopro video: https://youtu.be/-1FqsuPob4w
gld is now at $127.
6/12/14 facebook post
wow i caught the exact bottom of gld. on may 30 i announced here in fb i bought at 119.89. now it's at 122.58. i will sell it because i still have a sizable core position so if it goes up i'm happy. if it goes back down, i'm also happy because i can buy again. that's how you play the game. just don't be greedy. you will never be rich but it beats having to go to work everyday.
i love it when the market is trading sideways (because i range trade around my core positions) !!! i love it when the market goes up (because i'm 50% vested) !!! i love it when the market goes down (because i'm 50% cash and i can start buying) !!! in wall street lingua, i have lots of DRY GUN POWDER !!!
5/22/14 facebook post
one man's trash is another man's treasure. crm is down 5% so i’m buying. wall street’s trash is ian crystal’s treasure because ian thinks wall street is an idiot. check out the stats of dreamforce – 120 thousand attendees !!! wow !!! - http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Dreamforce-2013-set-for-huge-S-F-turnout-4984299.php . this means salesforce.com could easily be as big as microsoft or apple.
put bank of america
on your radar screen. it’s a very good play on rising interest rates. it’s
gotten very cheap so if interest rates never rise (HAHAHHA !!!!) small downside
but if rates start rising (HELLO???) that could easily catch a double. don’t be
arrogant – no more than 10% of your portfolio. but don’t buy yet – wait for
chart to show signs of a bottom.t.
12/16/13 facebook post
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-15/gold-funds-see-unprecedented-31-slump-with-world-losing-faith.html?cmpid=yhoo
this news is a bummer for big fund money managers but for small investors this is big opportunity. it says - gold will average $1,216/ounce in 2014. it is currently at $1,240/ounce. the biggest challenge with range trading is you don't know how far the price can drop. the article also says it cost $1,200 for a gold miner to produce an ounce. this means you don't have to worry how far the price can drop. knowing the floor of the price range and having the current price near the floor makes this the greatest range trading opportunity in the history of mankind.
there's never been anything like this in the history of the stock market. this means it is safe to even trade at a tight range - 2% to 5%. only small investors can do this - $10k a trade is an easy $200 profit per trade. big fund managers cannot do this. let's say you are managing $5 billion fund. you cannot just trade $10k because it won't have any effect to your fund you are just wasting your time. you have to trade at leat $100 million. but when you buy or sell $100 million worth, you can't do it in one day because there won't be enough sellers for the amount you wanna buy, or not enough buyers for the amount you wanna sell. your trade will even move the price easily 2%, which erases the 2% profit. hahahahaha !!!
12/5/13 facebook post
i thought gold will get hammered after a strong jobs data. instead it even went up a little. this is so weird. the article says the massive QE caused gold to go down. basic economics taught me that QE = inflation = gold goes up. instead gold went down. so what happens when the fed tapers? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-eases-ahead-of-jobs-report-2013-12-05?siteid=yhoof2
we are in an OPLOK STOCK MARKET. if the economy improves, stocks will go down. that's because if the economy improves, the fed will increase interest rates which causes money to flow from stocks to bonds. it sounds stupid. but it's true.
but wait. isn't it that as interest rates go up bond prices go down because people will sell their lower yielding bonds to buy the higher yielding bonds? so in conclusion, as the economy improves, all investors are screwed !!! hahahaha
12/4/13 facebook post
sell the gold i told you to buy yesterday at $117 for a quick 2.5% gain. i feel gold will be range bound around here in a tight range until christmas. hold the gold i told you to buy at $122. this is why you should not listen to those analysts in wall street they are just trying to take your money. listen to me, because i love you. i know those wall street analysts in armanis and driving maseratis have charm and charisma pinna and i look like a bum like paul walker but as my hot and sexy 3rd grade teacher miss luzon taught me do not judge a book by it's cover. read my fb post yesterday mocking the analysts who were telling you to stay away from gold or even short gold because it has become cheap. stupid !!! they want you to buy high and sell low. if you use basic math, sell low - buy high = negative, meaning you lose money. hahahaha
today is the right time to be like the boston red sox and take your first swing at the philippines (ephe). but do not be arrogant, do not buy all at once. just buy half of your intended position. it's at $32 right now. your next buy can be at $30. i know that's tight but for me if philippines goes to $25 something has gone terribly wrong which means you can still take advantage by selling some of your winners and buy some rental properties like condos and even a share at cebu country club which you can rent out at easily 5% return a year.
gold looks good at this level. buy buy buy !!! but don't be arrogant. only buy half of your position. keep some dry powder so you can pull the trigger again if gold gets another leg down.
i will buy my girlfriend selena gomez a gold watch:
10/31/13 facebook post
hahahahaha !!!! i posted here in facebook yesterday that i took profits in gold and today wall street follows me - http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-eases-despite-fed-investors-031422238.html .
sold GLD at $130. (the one i bought at $124). looks like GLD is range bound in this range.
a few months back i told everyone to range trade apple because it was $350 billion market cap with $250 billion in cash. apple was priced to go bankrupt. that's just insane. it's very rare the market gives us this gift. ever since, apple have gone up and down 4 times around my recommended 10% range. i only caught 2 of those, and i admitted here in facebook everytime i missed a move. but still it's better than nothing and way way better than gambling in the casino.
apple have so much ammunition. even if their sales are bad, they can easily increase the stock price by using their cash to buy back stock, which would increase earnings per share even if earnings is decreasing. it's simple algebra. x/y can increase even if x is decreasing simply by decreasing y even more.
10/1/13 facebook post
my prediction on obamacare - in time most people will get used to it, then love it. it's a gift. in a way, republicans will be wrong. obamacare is designed to be self sustaining, the healthy young is suppose to pay for the sick and old. that is why the healthy young are forced to get insured even if they don't need to. my prediction is the healthy young would rather pay the small tax penalty. this means the government will end up having to subsidize the program. so in a way, democrats will be wrong".
9/26/13 facebook post
even if the critics of obamacare turn out to be right, that does not mean they know better. it would just be a lucky guess. that's assuming there is a way of knowing they are right. most likely there would be no way of knowing. both sides will present misleading results and statistics. if you are a republican you will believe the republican arguments because you are a moron. if you are a democrat you will believe the democrat's arguments because you are a moron. obamacare is like increasing or decreasing taxes. no one can really tell it's actual overall effects. just the obvious detailed effects. because no matter which way the economy goes, one can still argue the economy moved that way "despite" decreasing or increasing taxes.
the experts in wall street recommend speculative stocks if you have risk tolerance. HEY MORONS !!! i don't have risk tolerance and i have some of speculatives - i bought diabetes plays (dxcm and podd) 2 years ago. but i don't consider it risky because it's only 5% of my portfolio (i recommended them here in facebook but sressed it should be no more than 5% of your portfolio). they have doubled and i don't even boast about it in facebook because it did not really move my portfolio because it's very small part of my portfolio. speculatives for me is like playing in the casino. it's just for fun. i don't depend on it to make a living. the biggest factor in risk tolerance is the amount you buy, not the amount of risk in the underlying asset.
start buying PGF. it's like buying all the preferred of all big banks all over the world for only $8 a trade. it has a juicy 6.5% yield. don't be arrogant or greedy - just buy at most half of your intended position. it was down 10% and it's bouncing a bit. not a solid bottom - the chart is not the pretty - too sharp bounce for my taste so it could be a dead cat bounce. that's why don't buy all at once in case it gets another leg down.
PGF is like bonds - but trades like a stock. SUPER SUPER SUPER diversified.
if you want to make it simple, i will give you the mother of all investment advice - 25% SPY, 25% GLD, 25% PGF, 25% cash. when one is down 10%, add or buy 5% of your position. when any is up 10%, sell 5% of your position. worse case scenario is down 50%. ENJOY !!!
SPY is like buying all the big companies in the world for just $8 a trade. SUPER SUPER SUPER diversified.
don't be tempted buy any recent high flyer like tesla. don't feel bad either that you didn't buy. it's like feeling bad you did not double your money in the casino last night by betting on red or black in the roulette table. at least the black/red in roulette is 50% chance. there are hundreds of good speculative stocks recommended by famous analysts. only 10% of them will at least double. when a star analysts starts boasting that he recommended tesla - you should laugh at him and call him an IDIOT !!! because he probably recommended 10 other speculatives and only tesla doubled. so if you bought all his recommendations, you probably lost a lot of money because chances are, the other recommendations went down, and the profits in tesla are not even enough to make up for your losses in his other recommendations.
now if tesla is the only stock he recommended in the last 2 years, then you can congratulate him.
obama should hire me to reform the SEC. it's very simple. there should be such a thing as "licensed investment adviser". of course you can recommend stocks without being licensed, just like you can represent someone in court even if you are not a lawyer, but no one will hire you or listen to you if you are not licensed. once you are licensed, all the investment buys and sells you do should be public. and then everyday your title changes to something like this: Ian Crystal, licensed adviser, 6.2%, 3.25 years. the first number is your performance since you got licensed. any licensed investment adviser who makes a trade without reporting gets their license revoked.
this way we know who is the best. just like in sports. examples:
aris kintanar - 207%, 1 year (nah, he probably just got lucky)
rafael ruflo - 7%, 10 years (woah. you should listen to this guy. he's got game)
john huwan - 12%, 25 years (omg. this guy is a rock star. i want his autograph)
8/25/13 facebook post
this is now beginning to scare me. another proof i'm the oracle of cebu. when gld was at 120 all the experts in wall street were saying gold is a bad investment because it is already clear that the quantitative easing is not causing inflation. they say gld will go to 60. so i started screaming here in facebook telling my fb friends to buy gold. now gld is at 134. i sold half of my position. so if gold continues to go up, i will be happy because i still have half of my position. but if gold will go down i will be also happy because that means i can buy some more. THAT'S HOW YOU PLAY THE GAME.
and of course apple. there were only 2 things i suggested to my facebook friends this year - when apple was at 450 i told everyone to play the ups and downs of apple - divide your intended position into 4 moves, make a move everytime apple moves 10%. i haven't been that noisy lately because apple is 500 and i sold everything when it was at 450. but that's ok.
i just realized that the famous investment gurus usually gives you hundreds of tips or advices. and when they get one right they boast about it which is stupid because if you give a hundred investment advice many of them are going to be right. it's like gambling in the casino of course if you play black jack 100 times you will have at least 10 wins. but me this year i only gave 2 - play the ups and downs of apple, and GLD. i nailed both of them. a year before that i've been screaming to get into real estate. i also nailed that one. i just sold my bay area condo for double the price i bought it in 2011. whew !!! is it just me or is it hot in here?
wow peso is weak - $44.2. i have friends in cebu who are importers. when peso was strong, they were happy. i told them that's bad. why? because that means if peso becomes weak you get hurt. solution? 1 word - hedge. buy enough dollars or dollar investments or holdings such that if peso becomes weak your dollar assets will balance it out. the problem here is that if peso becomes really really strong you won't be able to take advantage. but that's called being greedy. remember - if you are rich, becoming richer will just spoil your kids and family and even yourself. but if you become poor, ouch !!! (small upside, very big downside)
take the peso exchange rate out of play because that is out of your control. then you can focus on your business, which is something you have more control on.
(for more of my knowledge bombs, click the "ian's knowledge bombs" banner at the top of this article and choose any article in the table of contents that piques your interest)
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