Sunday, February 12, 2017

pragmatic analysis on trump's travel ban

https://www.facebook.com/steven.gern/videos/10154152513535404/

Trump supporters are praising this video and boasting it's 44 million views. I just realized a flaw in this dude's argument:

1) he was talking to iraqis
2) the iraqis he was talking to obviously are not trying to kill him, and probably working with him to help america or an american company

So this video actually shows there are good iraqis who deserve to live in america.  But the idiot republican ideologues wants a PERMANENT ban on ALL iraqis.

democrats should take notice of this video. i was starting to feel the travel ban is a disastrous loss for trump after the silicon valley CEOs openly expressed their opposition to the travel ban. but when i realized this video has 44 million views, i started to suspect that the travel ban could be one of trump's savvy political traps or maneuver.

the travel ban has a side effect that i don't hear people talking about - it probably is making the world realize that america is a benevolent country because it takes in refugees. before the travel ban, i was not aware america is still taking in refugees from all over the world. it's hard to believe after listening to all chomsky's speeches that america does humane things. this might actually make the world hate america less. everywhere i travel, i never met a person who does not hate america - even in countries who are suppose to be our allies. but maybe my assessment is bias because i stay in backpackers dorms and most backpackers tend to be leftists.

but there is a tiny partial truth to trump's argument. the world already hates us to a point that there's no more room for them to hate us even more. i also don't see how the likability factor of america translates to economic benefits. even if the world starts to like america, china will continue to make ultra cheap imitation of american products and other countries will continue to try to make trade deals and devalue their currency to their advantage at the expense of america. it's just business. as what trump said, he does not blame those countries - they did what they are suppose to do, and it's time america also does what it is suppose to do in negotiating trade deals. this is one of trump's policies i don't see much opposition from the democrats. i apologize for ignoring the morality side of the argument. morality can't be argued or analyzed you can only choose and vote in the elections.

Here is a good article explaining why a permanent travel ban is a bad idea: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/01/30/state-department-dissent-memo-we-are-better-than-this-ban/?utm_term=.ba69ca7e1bc6

on the other hand, the idiot democrat ideologues are furious with the temporary travel ban. they don't realize it's very possible for an ISIS infiltrator to use false identity or false documents to enter america. it's trump's job to review and improve the vetting process. so i think a 90 day temporary ban is ok.  their stupid argument is: there is no credible evidence of an imminent threat. the flaw in this argument is:

1) terrorist attacks don't ALWAYS give warning or credible evidence of a threat
2) if there really is credible evidence, giving away that information in public might reveal to our enemies our classified strategies or intelligence systems
3) it's possible for person traumatized by the death of a love one, example, a man sees his daughter being blow up by a US drone attack, then dedicates his life to avenge the death of his daughter by pretending to help americans, build his reputation as pro america so he could get in the country and carry out a horrific terrorist attack in america.

besides, obama did ban iraqis for 6 months in 2012.

another stupid argument of the democrat ideologues is: the 9/11 attackers, the boston bomber, etc ... did not come from the 7 banned countries. The flaw to this argument is:

1) it's possible after a quick review the vetting process from countries like saudi arabia are already satisfactory
2) maybe there really is a credible threat from the 7 countries but the information needs to be classified for the sake of national security.
3) i'm not sure if this is true but i googled it and here are the number of convicted terrorists from the 7 countries: Somalia, 20; Yemen, 19; Iraq, 19; Syria, 7; Iran, 4; Libya, 2; Sudan, 1.

the idiot democrat ideologues also say it's a muslim ban. the flaw in this argument is:

1) if it's a muslim ban, how come many muslim countries are not included in the ban?

however, i think i'm missing something. it's possible i'm the idiot. because the CEOs of the smartest companies in the world, my idols (like ellon musk), are criticizing the travel ban as if the travel ban is permanent. maybe there is information which i missed that shows that trump's true intent or ultimate goal is a permanent travel ban. or maybe the CEOs are just trying to be politically correct for public relations.

i also notice trump has not made an attempt to clarify that the ban is only temporary. maybe because he does want to anger anne coulter.

i think trump's travel ban is just a standard political maneuver. maybe trump does not really care if the ban is imposed or not.  democrats should be aware of this possibility. i don't think trump is really that adamant on implementing his travel ban. i think it's a standard political maneuver to kowtow to his radical or far right base to show he is trying to give them what they want. also if a terrorist attack happens under trump's term, it will seem as if democrats are at fault because this event seems as if trump's hands are tied and can't really do what he wants to keep this country safe. although of course it's not true, in politics, perception is reality. the left won't say what i'm saying because they want to portray trump as a islamaphobic bigot. and of course the right won't say it because they want to portray trump as a champion on national security.

same thing happened when obama said he will close guantanamo and senator mccain said no you can't and obama was too quick to fold and say like "ok you win". seems to me obama was just kowtowing to his base.

the possibly environmentally destructive horizontal drilling of shale flourished under obama. so just like trump's travel ban,  obama pretended to stop oil pipelines and horizontal drilling even if he knew he shouldn't because overall it would disadvantage america but tried anyway to satisfy his supporters.

i just realized the beauty of the american system because a federal judge has the power to stop or halt an executive order of the president.

(for more of my knowledge bombs, click the "ian's knowledge bombs" banner at the top of this article and choose any article in the table of contents that piques your interest)

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