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MY TAKE ON THE CAUSE OF PHILIPPINE INFLATION: “Not TRAIN Law But the Structural Defect”
Z. Geonzon
September 2018
MISINFORMATION propagated in media that TRAIN Law caused INFLATION can best be DISPROVED with facts and educated discussion from a business perspective. Historical data revealed that past administrations even WITHOUT increasing taxes have also experienced more serious double-digit inflations.
Today’s rising food prices obviously caused by GREED of food-hoarders in cahoots with political OPPORTUNISTS plotting to destabilise government at expense of the poor hungry Filipinos. Discovery of HOARDED rice volume in Bulacan and Cagayan de Oro fuelled people’s ANGER against SABOTEURS.
For the POLITICAL OPERATORS, if you think hungry people will cause revolt against present government, sentiments on the ground against huge-scale HOARDINGS only made more people determined to pursue economic and political REFORMS.
STRUCTURAL DEFECT
The Philippines, a net importing country, is always vulnerable to inflation due to global factors beyond control of government. This is COMPOUNDED with STRUCTURAL DEFECT of the country’s economic foundation that former leaders FAILED to undertake CORRECTIVE measures. Defects in SUPPLY, DEMAND and DISTRIBUTION have direct impact on price movement of basic goods.
SUPPLY
1. Country’s rice production is only 90% sufficient and poor distribution facilities made rice supply and prices at the mercy of unscrupulous traders. Though rice yield per hectare has increased due to improved technologies it cannot meet demand of fast-growing population.
2. Despite available technologies, locations and talents – central government failed to establish regional food hubs with integrated support facilities that can boost production in large and efficient scale.
3. Poor public investment in critical projects caused huge infrastructure gaps in mass transport, irrigation, post-harvest, energy, and support facilities.
4. Mindanao generates 60% of national food production but failure to undertake its railway system years ago, led to huge deficiencies in logistics – hence affecting national food supply and prices.
DEMAND
1. Failure to minimise population growth now at 100-million led to upward pressure on food prices.
2. Church encroachment on state affairs - like population policy – only WORSENS food demand and now impacting on general welfare.
3. Less-efforts were made to substitute rice with other alternative crops that annual per capita rice consumption of 90-kgs in 1995 increased to about 110-kgs at present.
4. With little ingenuity, we can partly correct this defect by diversifying our carbo-intake with root crops and may “hit many birds in one stone,”
- Government to initially buy cassava, sweet potatoes, etc., from local farmers and distribute to 4-P’s families through vouchers.
- Funding “root-crop vouchers” helps poor consumers, promotes market of root crops and increases income of poor upland farmers.
- Less rice intake reduces spike in blood sugar that cuts incidence of diabetes on adults – which is 60% of population - hence more health savings while stabilising rice supply.
- A stabilised rice supply through reduced consumption will relieve pressure on rice prices – hence taming down inflation.
5. Incidentally, recent spark in rice prices have forced many Filipinos to eat root crops – that government must now take advantage to promote the nutritious root crops as alternative to rice.
DISTRIBUTION DEFECT
1. Lack of efficient transport between production-consumption points led to price escalation that moving goods from a Mindanao-farm to Manila is more expensive than foreign shipment between Bahrain and Singapore.
2. Shipping goods between Surigao and Zamboanga (Mindanao) shipped via Cebu (Visayas) is much cheaper than moving goods direct by land.
3. With poor mass transport and support facilities for distribution, the country will remain vulnerable to food wastage, artificial shortage, price fixing, hoarding and other inflationary impact.
Inactions of past government(s) to correct these defects made Filipinos today to suffer the impact of inflation. Regardless of any presidents, with TRAIN Law or not, Filipinos will suffer agonising inflations unless measures to rectify these flaws are undertaken TODAY.
Massive public investment is therefore necessary through “BUILD, BUILD, BUILD” Program on critical infrastructures. Vast investment requires vast funding hence the need to impose consumption tax.
TRAIN Law may cause “manageable” increase in prices of basic goods, but the inherent “structural defects” will always be the main driver of inflation creating economic HAVOC on poor Filipinos.
Unpopularity of imposing tax caused past government(s) AFRAID to fix these faults that political convenience of INACTION led to accumulated DISCOMFORTS of today.
Indecisions inherent in a CENTRALISED-GOVERNMENT also led to MIS-PRIORITY of important region-based infrastructures. Decentralised governance by FEDERALISM or any form, can best harness ingenuity of Filipino talents like rectifying structural defects through various funding schemes and sources.
ECONOMIC and POLITICAL reforms along with TRAIN Law are therefore necessary to AVERT more PAINFUL INFLATIONS in the future - and liberate the country from economic stagnation.
I am aware of some imperfections of present government, but I share the same sentiments of others supporting the POLITICAL WILL to correct the STRUCTURAL DEFECT that past leaders prefer to neglect.
We are God-fearing and adherents to democratic ideals, that made us more determined to REJECT those who will oust this government and remind – the food hoarders and CANTANKEROUS political operators - to RESPECT the mandate of the people.
We are ordinary Filipinos with love of country, not paid trolls or so called “idiotards.”
We are literate and definitely MORE THAN SIXTEEN MILLION with desire to rectify the STRUCTURAL DEFECTS.
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my response:
brilliant !!! also very brave of you to express your political opinion especially nowadays where so many people are snowflakes who will be angry at you and not be friends with you if they don't agree with your opinions. i agree with everything you said. however the camote strategy probably won't work although we should try. just because something is healthier does not mean it's better because if i don't eat rice i become dizzy and have low energy even if i eat lots of very healthy high carbo root crops like camote i just keep farting. although i never read an article in the internet or heard any expert verifying my assertion so maybe my case is very rare. with regards to population control, i respect the perspective where it's always worth it for a human to be born into this world even if that human will suffer poverty all his life because maybe the joy of witnessing the beauty of sunset or tasting icecream even just once in his/her entire lifetime is worth it to be born and live. there's no right or wrong here it's a matter of choice just like choosing what is your favorite color. i don't have children and i believe it's a legitimate perspective that i'm worse than the crazy mother who murdered her children because at least she let them be born and live a few years and they got to taste the many pleasures like swim in the lake or drink pepsi.
(for more of my knowledge bombs, click the "ian's knowledge bombs" banner at the top of this article and choose any article in the table of contents that piques your interest)
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