we want to be aware of the possibilities so we can prepare and temper our expectations to avoid panic, unnecessary conflicts and disappointments. i'm not an expert on anything but that does not mean i can't use deductive reasoning from the facts and info from the officials and experts to be aware of the possibilities. note that it is not in the nature of our government officials to make predictions because ordinary citizens don't have a grasp on the concept of probability therefore predictions will most likely cause disappointments and resentments. it is also natural that many citizens who belong to the opposition would have a tendency to oppose and politicize any forecast coming from the current administration. so i humbly felt it is my duty to fill in this gap.
i am a nobody but this message should come from a nobody. organized humans have never experienced this situation before. during the 1918 pandemic, there was no internet and facebook so it was not possible for nobodys to pitch in. i am also aware and understand it is strongly encoded in our instincts to function only in a structure of hierarchy so it is natural for many to be irritated or at least ignore the merits of a message coming from a nobody or who doesn't have the charisma of vico sotto.
it is important for citizens to know that flattening the curve means to spread out the rate of infection over time to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. so even if cebu's curve has flattened, our officials still need to base their decisions on the number of available hospital beds and ventilators. so don't be an idiot and start protesting the enhanced quarantine just because our curve is on it's way down.
it's also important for citizens to know that re-opening the economy does not mean there will be no more covid-19 infections. even if our curve hasn't flattened, it's possible that our authorities will be forced to re-open the economy if the quarantine is starting to cause more deaths and sufferings. our government doesn't have limitless funds and provisions so at some point they will be forced to re-open the economy or else many will starve. this is what they mean when they say the remedy should not be worse than the disease. so don't be an idiot and blame your government for more deaths after the economy is re-opened
the good news is that for most of us, the risk won't be as high as our heroic front line medical workers that are already exposing themselves to save society. in 2019, 394 people died from motorcycle accidents in the philippines. a significant number relative to the 462 deaths from covid-19 so far. but it would be foolish for the government to ban motorcycles. the WHO also estimates 650 thousand people die from the common flu each year (https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year). a much bigger number compared to the 184 thousand that died from covid-19 so far. yet the 650 thousand deaths is not enough to warrant any community lockdown or quarantine.
covid-19 is more deadly but i PERSONALLY feel wearing home made masks in public, washing our hands before we touch our face, common sense or practical social distancing measures, and strategic testing will allow us to re-open the economy with the risks not that different from the common flu. and of course the elderly should continue to be quarantined and we should disinfect everything we hand over to them. this might be more challenging in the philippines considering most of our elderly live with their family and many homes in the slums don't have spare rooms. but i'm confident our government will find a way.
another good news that just came out recently is that the virus is much more widespread than earlier thought. this is good news because it means the mortality rate is much lower. although this is no consolation to the friends and families of the people who have died. read this article for more details - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-20/antibody-test-for-covid-19-debate-over-testing-accuracy-results.
we also have the benefit of hindsight to at least predict the best case scenario on how long our enhanced quarantine will last. in south korea, it took 32 days for the virus to peak and a similar 32 days to decline to where the economy could reopen. italy had a similar pattern - new cases peaked in 34 days and appear to be declining as the country heads toward a may 12 reopening. in germany, a similar pattern is unfolding, with a peak in 33 days, and a decline pointing towards a may 5 reopening. in the U.S., the peak was on april 10, which was 31 days after the first cases appeared. at best these cases only serve as a benchmark. but given the current trajectory, i PERSONALLY FEEL that cebu's economy might be able to reopen on the first week of june. of course it has to be a case by case basis, and cebu might have factors that allows us to re-open earlier or force us to re-open later. example, it's safe to assume that US, germany and south korea have more hospital beds and ventilators per capita compared to cebu. i'm sure they also have more testing capacity.
the good news is that abbot labs came up with a 5 minute antibody test and they will be manufacuring 20 million tests a month. but note that the population of the US is 320 million so it will take about a year for it to spill over to the philippines. so don't complain if you hear in the news other countries are already doing mass testing but not yet in cebu. we should be thankful that cebu has enough testing equipments to do strategic testing. however unless we do mass testing, it would be like driving blind or crossing a speeding traffic where you only see a few of the cars. for now, we should assume everyone is infected and wear home made masks in public, wash your hands before touching your face and obey your government's quarantine orders.
but we should not worry if the virus returns in the future because by then we should already have enough capacity to do mass testing. and maybe if we get lucky, a vaccine will already be available. with regards to treatment, the drug called remdesivir that was showing signs of guarded optimism just flopped it's first clinical trial. this was something i expected as i posted in facebook on april 18 that remdesivir has been widely available since 2013 therefore by now china should have already tested it and using it if it really works. even if it passed the clinical trials, there probably is not enough time to ramp production for it to factor in on cebu's re-opening decision.
more importantly, it is important for us to keep abreast on all the important facts, instructions and orders from our authorities. i centralized all the critical info in a single wiki site - https://ian.mywikis.wiki/wiki/Covid19
sincerely,
concerned citizen
(complete list of my knowledge bombs - https://ian-crystal.blogspot.com/2018/12/table-of-contents.html)
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