Tuesday, November 12, 2013

super typhoon retrospective




i'm just brainstorming here. i'm not really an expert on anything. this article can just be used as a starting point of discussion.

during typhoon season, everyone should have a few sardines + rice + bottled water packets ready depending on what they can afford. if we have vases and picture frames on our bookshelves in the living room, why not have a relief packet? shouldn’t we be more proud to have some relief packets around the house in place of vases and other useless dust collecting decorations? we should be ashamed to our house guests if they don't see relief packets displayed in the house.

update 12/25/21 after super typhoon odette:

the people fixing the electric lines damaged by the super typhoon are in more danger even if there is no electricity. if someone hooks up their generator to the main fuse panel in their house and forgets to turn off or disconnect the main line, the lineperson can get electrocuted. the transformers you see on the electric posts could step up the voltage to thousands of volts which is very lethal to the linesperson. the owner of the house could go to jail for manslaughter. to avoid accidents, do not hook up your generator to your main fuse panel until you have a transfer switch or interlocking switch installed. i tried all the hardware stores in cebu but none are available so i just ordered in lazada which will probably arrive only when everything is back to normal. for now i simply improvised 10 gauge (1.6mm) extension chords and receptacles to connect the fridge, lamps, aircon, and electric fans to my generator. 

i want to add to my blog article "super-typhoon-retrospective" which i wrote 8 years ago where i outlined my possibly stupid ideas on how our country can prepare for a super typhoon (search "ian's knowledge bombs on the web and click the article in the table of conents"). my ideas may turn out to be stupid but what's important is we try. we should develop a culture of innovation just like in silicon valley. 

maybe there is a way for the government to commission all power utility personnel and equipments around the country to disaster recovery system similar to the national guard in america. boats, trucks and planes that could transport the personnel and equipments such as cranes, bucket lifts, etc ... would be part of the system. maybe create a law where one of the tanods of each barangay will need to be a certified electrical grid damage assessor who can quickly take a photo of a fallen line and input it into a centralized database together with the number labeled on each electrical post. experts will quickly analyze the database and generate a list of the estimated personnel and equipments needed to assit the affected regions and repel the invading japanese forces of world war 2. once the resources has been assigned or allocated, the power utility and transport companies around the country will immediately get SPECIFIC instructions on WHAT and WHERE to send personnel to repell the invading forces.

our leaders in charge who can make these ideas happen will probably just laugh at these ideas because why on earth would they go through these headaches when they are so rich they have their own generators, private water supply, and they have access to limited fuel reserves. instead they will just find a way to manipulate the crisis for their own personal agenda. NEVER LET A CRISIS GO TO WASTE. however, if an idea becomes viral and people start clamoring and demanding the leaders to implement these ideas, they would have no choice but to act and perform.

it's also possible that any local politician who spearheads this idea will become a national figure. i don't know i'm just an idiot.

the power is in your hands. you can start by criticizing my ideas and proving why my idea is stupid and coming up with your own idea. then spread it around in social media.

during my 20 year career as a software engineer in silicon valley i proposed roughly 50 ideas. i was part of a startup company called Altera Corporation that later became a $50 billion company that got bought out by intel in 2015. most of my ideas in Altera turned out to be stupid but 3 of them turned out to be a blockbuster that helped our company gain an edge over our competitor and the company rewarded me with stock options and bonuses that allowed me to retire at a very young age. my stupid ideas did nothing to hurt our company because the brilliant engineers simply explained to me why my ideas are stupid then they encouraged me to continue coming up with ideas because we never know it might turn out to be an idea that will save our company. 

i am now so rich i am the only person in the philippines who drives a tesla as you can see in my facebook posts even if elecric cars are banned in the phillippines. electric cars are banned in the philippines because it's good for the environment. why do i even bother writing these PSAs in a country where electric cars and electric scooters are illegal? in a time when climate change is wreaking havoc and creating more frequent and stronger super typhoons?

innovation culture is the culture that produced the iphone, google, facebook and the many technologies that we are enjoying. the danger with my idea is that it might become successful and adopted by other countries and filipinos might have a reputation for being innovators and not just the maids and caregivers of the world.

our leaders will only do what the people want so it's the duty of every caring citizen to propose ideas. if you have no idea, you still have the duty to spread and promote the best ideas you come across. political discourse should be dominated by ideas, not personalities and principles that are too general to be useful. it's perfectly fine to praise or condemn political candidates based on their personalities and principles as long as you also debate ideas, else you are either an idiot or simply don't care about society and you are just virtue signaling and displaying your weak emotional quotient (EQ). 

just keep in mind that an idea that even the United Nations deem criminal and barbaric dominated the philippine's political landscape the last 6 years simply because it's WHAT THE PEOPLE WANTED. so don't give me that bullshit excuse that politics is all about money and power. propose the ideas you think is best to your favorite political candidates and tell your candidate to campaign on CONCRETE and SMART ideas not just personality and virtue signals. SMART ideas are Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Timely. 

example, "before it takes a month for the electricty to be fixed after a super typhoon but after this idea is implemented, the power can come on in 5 days". or, "before i cannot visit my cousin in the slums because the drug dealers will suspect i'm an informant or police asset and murder me, but now drug dealers and drug lords are very friendly and respectful to everyone and the slums are now magically safe and peaceful". or "before, my 13 year old teenage daughter was seduced by our drug dealer neighbor but there is nothing i can do because the drug lord is well connected, but now the drug dealers and drug lord are the ones afraid of me". or "i live in a highly secure luxury condo or affluent subdivision and don't give a shit about the people in the slums and i can afford my own generator so ideas that improve society are just useless and annoying".


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even if just the middle class does this, i think it would be more than enough. that’s because a calamity usually does not hit the entire country, just a small part. i understand the poorer families would end up eating the relief packet at some point when they get hungry.

each city should have FIXED designated drop off locations, trucks and boats. the trucks and boats do not need to be specialized for emergency relief purposes. they can be privately owned and used for private businesses. they just have an agreement with the city that in times of need the city will rent them and the owners will get paid.

after the super typhoon, cities that got spared by the disaster will step in - automatically dropping off their packets to the nearest drop off location. each city should have like a national guard reserve type of volunteers who are trained - including road clearing, using chain saws or even dynamites. the volunteers should be armed and know how to use guns to protect themselves from looters and raiders.

while citizens are dropping of their packets, military choppers should already be on the air surveying the best possible routes for the relief trucks and also communicating to the relief truck drivers any road clearing equipment that might be needed (or update a wiki page for all to see)

each city should also own a few satellite phones and satellite internet devices with wifi that will be transported by the military choppers  or dropped off by parachute to the disaster areas. these devices should be easy to install and operate and have a simple operating manual. survivors in the disaster areas can gather around the portable satellite wifi and communicate with their love ones.

so just hours after the calamity even if the cell phone towers are down all survivors can immediately contact their relatives.

there should be a centralized wiki page and a separate wiki page should immediately be created (and the link added to the central page) for each disaster city where any critical information on the city's status can be posted.

each city should figure out a way to quickly restore water supply - at least at the source where the people could at least go and collect drinking water. this the priority 1. this has to be drilled and rehearsed. makeshift tents and relief operation command centers should be near the water source

sending bottled water should just be on the first day. it's too heavy and inefficient. on the second day, the relief should just be sardines and rice.

i think this should be the minimal requirement. i know there should be more like medical response, and our leaders should tackle those.

relief trucks should have a big label or sign what city they came from. people in disaster areas who have relatives in the city of the relief truck can hitch a ride. if they don't fit a lottery will ensue. everyone should be educated on these standard procedures.

we should also take advantage that we live in the tropics where most soil is fertile. we should figure out emergency food production measures so the disaster area can self sustain as soon as possible. maybe doing mass planting of camote or mongo beans.

so what happens if there is no super typhoon that year? well at the end of the typhoon season people will just eat their rice and sardines packets and the trucks and boats continue their business.  i also don't think all the training and education awareness would be a waste considering the amount of time and money people spend nowadays on sports and hobbies - diverting a small amount into disaster preparedness and response would be more useful and maybe even fun. also these knowledge and skills should easily be included in schools (e.g. scouting) and company/government trainings or seminars.

for the 1+2+3+1 packet, instead of noodles why not skyflakes crackers? noodles has too much salt that could further dehydrate. it also consumes precious water and firewood and energy to cook the weak and sick might not be strong enough to do these tasks.

1/31/14 facebook post

i’m glad there is great progress in the rebuilding efforts and many people are making sacrifices to help the victims, but i think there are many easy and cheap endeavors we can still do that has big positive impact on our state of preparedness for the next big calamity. i wote them in this blog after the typhoon, and i expected some nationwide program similar to my suggestions so i’m dissapointed that i haven’t seen or heard of any.

the world is changing. super typhoon yolanda could be just the beginning. fortunately, we now have communication tools, technology and resources that we did not used to have just a few years ago. unfortunately, we are not taking advantage of these resources.

why am i not the one spearheading the action? because it is not my role in society. my gift is ideas, imagination, and problem solving. i am not gifted with charm, charisma pinna and executive abilities. leaders are born, not made. even if your idea or plans are perfect, if you don't have the charm and charisma to motivate and inspire people, your plans will fail.

i have aquaintances who are leaders of society or at least in the position to jump start this. i have messaged them the original post of this blog. they are good people but i really feel that, and i can only hope i'm wrong on this, i really feel they are fucking incompetent for the lack of a better word. no imagination whatsoever. unlike leaders in japan, germany, US, australia, norway, canada, south korea and other great nations who would have immediately done something similar to my suggestions in this blog.

spearheading these natural calamity preparedness solutions could be any politician's ticket to higher office. imagine if you are the face of this program and it becomes very popular and loved nationwide. imagine the awe and excitement of the whole country as they watch on tv air drop rehearsals of the satellite wifi units and seeing an average citizen read the manual, assemble it and get it working. now no one has to worry about not being able to communicate with the outside world for days if a calamity strikes their area. it also makes them sleep better at night knowing food and water will be available immediately the next time disaster strikes.

in cities with abundant underground water like tacloban, maybe store portable pumps and generators in waterproof underground containers with user friendly manuals. it only takes a small portable pump (5 lbs, 1 feet lenght, 4 inches in diameter) to drain my 15,000 gallon swimming pool in 8 hours.

during the aftermath of typhoon yolanda i was chatting with my high school batchmates. i pointed out the first important thing we need to know is whether bantayan island has hand pump wells which i know is common in barrios. they laughed at me because bantayan is an island so there could be no underground fresh water. my brother's maids are from bantayan and i asked them if they have hand pump wells they said yes and they were still operational after the typhoon. GO FIGURE !!! i can only hope the maids were not telling the truth because many of my batchmates are now the leaders of society.

then we started talking about tacloban. again i told them i only visited tacloban once and in the house i was staying there was a shallow fresh water well so chances are there are many other shallow wells in tacloban so all you need is a small water pump, hose and water containers. again they snuffed at my suggestions with all sorts of negative let's just give up attitude - they're contaminated, you can't boil water because firewood are all wet (meanwhile we kept sending noodles that needs to be cooked), etc .... then my uncle arrives at cebu and i asked him what happened to their water well after the typhoon and my uncle said it was a life saver because it provided them with clean drinking water. again, GO FIGURE !!! tsk tsk tsk tsk tsk.

i am so lucky i have negative charm and charisma so i can just use my god given abilities for my own selfish pleasures. because the moment i try to share my ideas people will just treat me like i'm a retarded moron. well, in the philippines at least. in silicon valley where i worked for 15 years (at http://www.altera.com/ ) all my ideas were embraced, implemented, and handsomely rewarded with bonuses and stock options and i kept getting promoted (https://ian-crystal.blogspot.com/2018/11/tech-innovations-by-a-dummy.html). i started as a technician, became an advanced software engineer then became a supervisor. this is why silicon valley is where apple devices, google and facebook is developed. meanwhile the philippine's only economic hope is to work like dogs abroad and send dollars back home or source of cheap labor and manufacturing.

during my grandfather's funeral i was talking to my uncle sandy javier who is the president of the mayor's association in the philippines. he is a mayor of one of the towns near tacloban that was badly hit by typhoon yolanda. i swear to you, uncle sandy is one of the best mayors in the country. what he has done for his town is miraculous. but when i started dishing out my ideas for calamity preparedness, he immediately got irritated and angry. he never even let me finish a sentence. he would just yell "YOU CANNOT PREPARE FOR A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE !!! THERE IS NO HOPE !!! YOU CAN ONLY BE THANKFUL IF YOU SURVIVE !!!". then when some of his staff heard our heated argument they started joining in telling me "that's right ian. you don't know what you are talking about. you were not there. we were all there." then i tried to explain i'm talking about something different and they got angrier and left. unbelievable !!!

after working as a technician for 3 years in silicon valley, i studied my company's product and development environment and i invented the compute farm, regression test system, and quality test system. in the next 12 years, it felt like i was not working because it was fun working on something i invented. all i did was email the executives my proposal and they immediately gave me the resources to develop. when i got it working, they gave me stock options, bonuses, and promoted me. my systems were adopted by other departments across the the globe. i never really had a boss, because almost all the things i was working on was something i came up with. management just left me alone and will just check on me once a week and in our meetings they will just ask me what i'm up to and if i need resources, instead of telling me what to do.

check out this article: http://qz.com/180247/why-google-doesnt-care-about-hiring-top-college-graduates/

"Google looks for the ability to step back and embrace other people’s ideas when they’re better. “It’s ‘intellectual humility.’ Without humility, you are unable to learn,” Bock says. “Successful bright people rarely experience failure, and so they don’t learn how to learn from that failure.”

Here's what Google is looking for (and why they're on top):

1. Intellectual Humility - the ability to step back and embrace other people’s ideas when they’re better.
2. People that make it without college are often the most exceptional - “When you look at people who don’t go to school and make their way in the world, those are exceptional human beings." - Google's head of people operations
3. Learning ability is more important than IQ - " IQ is less valuable than learning on the fly."
4. Leadership - It’s not about leading a club at school or an impressive prior title, but the ability to step up and lead when it’s necessary...AND the ability to relinquish power when the time comes.

12/6/14 facebook post

i find storm signal coding system useless and stupid. i have no clue what a storm signal is. how many of you know what a storm signal means? ok u may be more knowledgable than me but how about the majority of filipinos?  example: "ruby is estimated to hit bohol, cebu, and negros at 150kph at 3pm friday. ........ 10 foot storm surge (like a TSUNAMI) is expected to hit the coasts of romina and boracay. then caption it with: yolanda was 315 kph. the strongest storm this year was typhoon oplok at 75kph. (this gives folks a point of reference)

my point is we have to be sure the public understands the communication. using the right words is not enough. sometimes, even using the wrong words will save thousands of lives. if the word tsunami was used instead of storm surge, thousands of lives would have been saved.  i was salutatorian in cebu international school, i was cum laude in university of the philippines,  i was waitlisted in ateneo, yet if i was living by the coast in tacloban and someone told me there was a 90% chance of a storm surge i would just have ignored the warning because this is the first time in my whole fucking life i've heard of "storm surge". however, if someone told me a storm surge is like a tsunami and there is a 1% chance of occurring i would have freaked out and ran for the hills..

the most expensive tuition fee ever - an education on the definition of a storm surge..

12/5/14 facebook post

the phrase "stongest storm of the year" is stupid and meaningless. what if it's only 75kph and it's the strongest because the second most strongest was only 50kph? the most meaningful headline is the storm could be 70% the strength of yolanda.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152842444713119

11/7/13 facebook post

filipino journalists should learn from american journalists. news in the philippines kept saying - "strongest typhoon this year." are you freakin' kidding me? that means we should be fine then because we were fine last year and the year before that and the year before that. then i read a yahoo article and in the FIRST LINE - "... THE MOST POWERFUL TYPHOON EVER RECORDED ..." that's journalism 1) important things first 2) consequence !!! consequence !!! consequence !!! i never took a single unit of journalism. but to me it's just common sense.

11/6/13 facebook post (this is what i posted the day before yolanda)

yolanda - 240kph, will be the first super typhoon to hit cebu in 23 years. since i left cebu in 1992, there's never been a super typhoon to hit cebu since i left. there's only been 2 super typhoons to hit cebu in my lifetime:
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nitang 1984 - 220kph, 1,363 deaths, PhP 4.1B damage
ruping 1990 - 220kph, 748 deaths, PhP 10.846B damage

1/21/18 facebook post

instead of throwing away a plastic bottle (water bottle, soda bottle, juice bottle, etc ..), it's my habit to rinse it then fill it with filtered water from my faucet and just throw it in a large drum. why? i don't know. (HAI YAN ambot nimo. HAI YAN you are such an idiot you do things for no reason at all. HAIYAN na boang na ka. HAIYAN you have nothing better to do so you find any reason to post useless crap in facebook). maybe you can exercise your creativity juices and paint the drum and use it as a decorative masterpiece in your living room. or if YO LAND At your backyard has unused space you can put the drums there.

(for more of my knowledge bombs, click the "ian's knowledge bombs" banner at the top of this article and choose any article in the table of contents that piques your interest)


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